Polling company YouGov is suggesting that all four Bristol constituencies will be won by Labour on 8 June.
On the back of YouGov’s shock national poll suggesting we are on track for a hung Parliament, the poll is yet another in a series of results that might make Theresa May wish she had waited until 2020.
The outcome should be a predictable Labour win in Bristol South and Bristol West, with YouGov predicting Labour will take these seats comfortably.
Bristol East could be more interesting, with YouGov predicting it to be a ‘likely’ Labour seat. In 2015, Labour’s Kerry McCarthy took the seat with a majority of 4,000. The UKIP aspect of this vote will be key, with 7,000 votes going to the anti-EU party in 2015. If they were to swing behind the Conservative candidate Theo Clarke this time, coupled with doubts among Labour supporters about Jeremy Corbyn’s suitability for Prime Minister, this seat could well turn blue.
Bristol North West is set to be the main battleground, with YouGov predicting it to be a ‘lean’ Labour majority. Incumbent Conservative candidate Charlotte Leslie will take on Labour’s Darren Jones in a rematch of the 2015 election, which saw Ms Leslie take the seat with a majority of almost 5,000. The decision by the Green candidate, Sharmila Bousa, to cease campaigning could spell trouble for Ms Leslie, as the Greens took almost 3,000 votes in 2015. Bristol North West will be a result to watch in the early hours of Friday 8th, as this tightly fought seat will probably signal whether Mrs May’s gamble has paid off or backfired spectacularly.